As we conclude the third week of our Unite the Country effort, we continue to see forward momentum for Joe Biden, as well as a clearer roadmap for how we, with the help of our supporters can work to move Joe Biden closer to the Democratic nomination, and eventually the Presidency.
First, a little note about our work. We are in the midst of a research project in Iowa, which was informed by a number of focus groups last week, which besides being quite cold for the Florida-based Unite the Country staff, demonstrated a singular conclusion: Iowa is very much up for grabs, and voters were really struck by Joe Biden’s record of fighting for the middle class, and his vision on health care, and his plan for standing up for everyday Americans. As we type this memo, we are also fielding a poll that will further test several of the items we saw in the focus groups. We’ve also added to our internal finance staff and are finishing the process of rounding out professional team.
The polling over the last ten days continues to show momentum for Biden. His average national lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls is now over 10 points, and has not been impacted by the arrival of Bloomberg or Patrick (Interestingly, our focus groups in Iowa showed a visceral push-back against the idea of more candidates entering the race).
One poll really demonstrates how Biden’s ability to build a broad, diverse base of support is driving his lead. The Economist weekly poll shows Biden with an 8 point lead nationally, but when you break it down, you see that Warren actually has a 2 point lead among white voters, while Biden has a 14 point lead among Hispanics over Sanders, and a 35 point lead over both Sanders and Warren among Black voters.
It is this demographic reality that is leading to such a close race in both Iowa and New Hampshire – that and the fact Mayor Buttigieg is vastly outspending the other candidates in Iowa in November, but when we look beyond the first two states, the Vice President’s ability to earn the support of a broad coalition of voters is why poll after poll released over the last ten days in the more diverse states that follow New Hampshire show Biden leading.
Nevada (February 25): Biden +6, and Biden +10
South Carolina (February 28): Biden +20, Biden +28, and Biden +28.
In fact, there hasn’t been a state-level poll this week after New Hampshire that doesn’t show Joe Biden in the lead (the primary dates follow the state):
California (March 3): Biden +1
Texas (March 3): Biden +10
North Carolina (March 3): Biden +22 and Biden +15
Arizona (March 17): Biden +11
Georgia (March 24): Biden +19 and Biden +17
Wisconsin (April 7): Biden +13
The Impeachment inquiry of the last few weeks has been a good reminder of just how far Donald Trump is willing to go to avoid facing Joe Biden in the election. In addition, Donald Trump and his allies have spent north of $1.4 million in negative ads in the early primary states, as well as key battleground markets in places like Pennsylvania, trying to influence the Democratic nomination fight. What is interesting – the more Trump talks about Biden, and the more that voters see the race as a fight between Biden and Trump, the better that Biden seems to do.
The biggest challenge facing the Vice President is the need to fight a two-front war: one for the Democratic nomination, and one against Trump – and that two-front war can be seen in the spending on television, where Biden is being outspent. Our research so far is pretty clear: if Vice President Biden can push back against the Trump attacks, plus tell his own story, he will do well in Iowa, and be in a very strong position heading into Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond, where the voter profile looks much more like the Democratic primary electorate, as well as America.
And as we all know by now, there is nothing that keeps Donald Trump up at night like the fear of a Joe Biden nomination. Watching the NBC debate, you can see why. Voters in our focus groups time and time again remarked on Joe Biden’s preparedness to handle the complicated foreign policy issues that will face the next President as a reason to vote for him, and on that debate stage, Joe Biden showed he was ready on Day One to be President.
Thank you for your support. Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions.